Pages tagged probability:
Intuitive visual explanation of Bayes' theorem using Venn diagrams
I recently came up with what I think is an intuitive way to explain Bayes’ Theorem. I searched in google for a while and could not find any article that explains it in this particular way. Of course there’s the wikipedia page, that long article by Yudkowsky, and a bunch of other explanations and tutorials. But none of them have any pictures. So without further ado, and with all the chutzpah I can gather, here goes my explanation.
Official Google Research Blog: On the predictability of Search Trends
Since launching Google Trends and Google Insights for Search, we've been providing daily insight into what the world is searching for. An understanding of search trends can be useful for advertisers, marketers, economists, scholars, and anyone else interested in knowing more about their world and what's currently top-of-mind.
The Coin Flip: A Fundamentally Unfair Proposition? - Coding the Wheel
http://www.codingthewheel.com/archives/the-coin-flip-a-fundamentally-unfair-proposition
The Coin Flip: A Fundamentally Unfair Proposition?
What's luck got to do with it? The math of gambling - physics-math - 11 August 2009 - New Scientist
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327202.600-whats-luck-got-to-do-with-it-the-maths-of-gambling.html?full=true
Even if you can't beat the system, there are some cunning ways to tilt the odds in your favour
The Carol syndrome
http://plus.maths.org/issue51/features/rey/index.html
Plus Maths Magazine: Feature Article
The Carol syndrome
A mathematical explanation of how pretty girls scare boys away.
Mooie vrouwen worden zelden aangesproken. Wiskundige onderbouwing waarom
Dan Gilbert on our mistaken expectations | Video on TED.com
http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_researches_happiness.html
Book of Odds - The Odds of Everyday Life
http://www.bookofodds.com/
This is an interesting site focusing on odds and statistics.
Why you only need to test with five users (explained): Measuring Usability
http://www.measuringusability.com/five-users.php
There are a lot of strong opinions about the magic number 5 in usability testing and much has been written about it. Here's another one.
Odds Are, It's Wrong - Science News
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/57091/title/Odds_Are,_Its_Wrong
Good story on how much science is messed up by misuse of statistics
Tom Siegfried, Mar 27, 2010 "uring the past century, though, a mutant form of math has deflected science’s heart from the modes of calculation that had long served so faithfully. Science was seduced by statistics, the math rooted in the same principles that guarantee profits for Las Vegas casinos. Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes science more like a crapshoot." "Statistical tests are supposed to guide scientists in judging whether an experimental result reflects some real effect or is merely a random fluke, but the standard methods mix mutually inconsistent philosophies and offer no meaningful basis for making such decisions. Even when performed correctly, statistical tests are widely misunderstood and frequently misinterpreted. As a result, countless conclusions in the scientific literature are erroneous, and tests of medical dangers or treatments are often contra"
On the abuse and misuse of statistics by science
Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics
A useful article outlining the shortcomings of statistics when it comes to ascertaining scientific fact. Half of all medical data could be wrong. "For better or for worse, science has long been married to mathematics. Generally it has been for the better. Especially since the days of Galileo and Newton, math has nurtured science. Rigorous mathematical methods have secured science’s fidelity to fact and conferred a timeless reliability to its findings."
Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics
Coding Horror: Finishing The Game
http://www.codinghorror.com/blog/archives/001204.html
"This problem, although seemingly simple, is hard to understand. For cognitive reasons that are not fully understood, while our intuitions regarding a priori possibilities are fairly good, we are easily misled when we try to use probability to quantify our knowledge. This is a fancypants way of saying there were almost a thousand comments on that post, with not a lot of agreement to be found. "
someone who told you they had two children, and one of them is a girl. What are the
Less Wrong: Bayes' Theorem Illustrated (My Way)
http://lesswrong.com/lw/2b0/bayes_theorem_illustrated_my_way
Great illustration.
When Intuition And Math Probably Look Wrong - Science News
http://sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/60598/title/When_intuition_and_math_probably_look_wrong
Hint: 13/27
Great! When intuition and math probably look wrong: http://bit.ly/9ohKuV #mathematics #science – Amir Kassaei (AmirKassaei) http://twitter.com/AmirKassaei/statuses/17519030506